Risk Assessment Using Interval Analysis
and Fuzzy Arithmetic

Sunday, 3 December 1995
Society for Risk Analysis Annual Meeting
Sheraton Wikiki
Honolulu, Hawaii

This full day workshop will review the use of interval analysis and fuzzy arithmetic for propagating uncertainty through calculations in a quantitative risk assessment. These methods can be used even when data are far too sparse for other uncertainty projection methods. They are also widely applicable and are useful for handling uncertainty of all kinds no matter what its nature or source. Interval analysis underlies any reasonable conception of worst case analysis or theoretical upper bounding estimates and it can also provide a check on the results of a full-blown probabilistic risk analysis that is often simple enough for hand calculation. Although anyone can master the basics of these two methods, some important details can be subtle. Inattention to such details is common in risk analysis and it occasionally leads to erroneous conclusions. During the workshop, the methods will be applied to several risk assessment problems as examples, including hydrocarbon soil contamination, pesticide misapplication, targeting lead cleanup levels, extinction of endangered species and event-tree/fault-tree safety analysis.

The workshop is organized by Scott Ferson, Senior Scientist at Applied Biomathematics, and J. Arlin Cooper, Distinguished Member of the System Studies Department at Sandia National Laboratory. Contact the organizers at 516-751-4350 or for a three-page syllabus and workshop description. To register for the workshop, contact the Society for Risk Analysis at 703-790-1745. Pre-registration is $200; on-site registration is $250.

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